Atria's
Financial Statement Bulletin will
be published on early February so let’s look at the results
from recent years. The chart below
illustrates Atria's quarterly EBITs starting from 2009. The readings are highly unofficial. Large
write-offs (Atria Baltic 2009-Q4 about € 7 million, Atria Russia 2010-Q3, about
€ 10,5 million and Atria Russia 2013-Q3, about €15,5 million) are
excluded.
Actual
EBITs are indicated with solid lines.
Dashed circles show a set of reasonable country-specific 2013 Q4 EBIT
figures, which could lead to the whole Group’s FY-2013 EBIT of €20 million (or
about €35 million pre-exceptional), which roughly corresponds to a typical analyst’s expectations.
Figure: Quarterly earnings before interest and
taxes by year in Atria's business areas, large write-offs excluded.
It seems obvious, that once again results in Finland and
especially in Russia will determine the whole Group’s Q4 result,
although this time Scandinavia gives some extra tension. Let’s go now
very briefly through the country-specific figures presented on the chart,
just to find out what kind of results analyst’s expectations might be based on.
Atria
Finland
Atria Finland’s 2013 started well but then the profit started to slip
towards the 2009 results which were really bad. There is no real reason to believe that the
trend has changed markedly. Then, EBIT
of €9 million is a slightly optimistic but a decent guess and any result
above it would surely be a positive surprise.
Atria Scandinavia
Compared to 2012, Atria Scandinavia’s year
2013 has gone, in terms of EBIT, just
the same way. But there is an
interesting feature. Namely Q4 2012 was a near disaster. It seems that analysts don’t expect the same happen
now and that kind of a result would be a huge
disappointment. Analysts might be expecting an EBIT of €4 million which is perhaps somewhat optimistic,
though.
Atria Russia
There’s
truly no way to guess Atria Russia’s Q4 result.
Very likely expectations generally range from small profits to small
losses. Only a multi-million result in
either direction would make an impact. An EBIT
of €-1 million is a fair guess.
Atria Baltic
Atria
Baltic’s year 2013 has gone relatively well.
There is no reason to expect big losses or big gains.
A loss of a couple of million however would be a moderate
disappointment. EBIT of €0 million
is a simple and reasonable guess.
Some more guesswork
Total
of those guesses about what the analysts might have thought, is €12
million. Subtracting unallocated costs
about €1 million, we would end up with the Group Q4-2013 EBIT of €11 million. Atria
Group’s actual aggregate 2013 Q1 to Q3 EBIT is about €9 million. Hence €11
million correspond to analysts’ typical FY 2013 EBIT estimate of €20 million.
We will discuss Atria
later but on Friday, January 31st, we are going to look at HKScan’s businesses. “Roll The Dice”.
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